Happy Saturday! Severe weather season continues in West Texas. We've had three severe storms and one tornado warned storm thus far today. Our severe window should come to a close around 8-9 PM this evening, but we're not done with severe season by a long shot. A lot of severe chances are in the upcoming forecast.
Tonight will be another muggy, warm night. Temperatures will drop only into the upper 60s and low 70s once again as our dry line stays to our west. This will lead to a very similar setup tomorrow, with storms popping up in the early afternoon yet again. Large hail and flooding underneath the slow moving storms will be the main threats, but each chance of severe weather still brings with it the threat of isolated tornadoes and damaging winds.
Wash, rinse, and repeat for your Memorial Day. The upper low bringing us the ingredients for these thunderstorms will move ever so slightly closer on Monday, bringing yet another chance of afternoon storms with it. Precipitation seems a bit lower on Monday, so maybe less of a severe threat? Too soon to say, because the dry line will still be around. Tuesday the dry line will be temporarily shoved to the east as the low sweeps across the Plains, dragging the severe threat with it.
The dry line will try to move back into the eastern Permian Basin on Wednesday, and a cold front dropping in from the northwest could initiate more storms with this dry line in the afternoon. The front should bring down temperatures to the low 80s, possibly even as low as a the 70s. Strength of the front and the amount of storms it will generate is TBD.
The dry line comes right back on Thursday, setting up more storm chances Friday through next weekend.