Severe weather is back in the forecast for West Texas Friday evening through Sunday morning.
Although the best chance for storms will be Saturday evening and Saturday night, isolated storms cannot be ruled out for the southern Permian Basin on Friday evening. A few of these storms can be strong to severe with small hail and strong wind gusts. The bigger severe weather threat will be Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is when the Storm Prediction Center has us under at "slight risk" meaning scattered severe storms are expected. Threats include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. The severe weather threat will move east on Sunday with lingering showers for West Texas through Sunday morning. Rain accumulations will be highest in the eastern counties with one to two inches possible.
As always, latest information can be found on our Stormtracker9 weather app.
Meteorological explanation (for the weather nerds like me):
An upper level low has dug south from the Pacific northwest and will stall over northwest New Mexico through the weekend. This setup brings northwest flow aloft which brings shortwaves into the area. The stalled low pressure system will produce upper level support for convective storms and as it moves east will increase our rain chances.
We have seen a lot more moisture in the area lately due to south and southeasterly winds bringing in moisture at the surface. This will likely set up a dryline that will be the surface lift needed for thunderstorm production.