Monday Evening Weather Update

First Alert Weather Day Tomorrow

Happy Monday everyone! If you were outside at any point today, you probably noticed the chill in the air. This is going to make for a tricky forecast tomorrow morning, and a tricky morning commute.

Overnight, we’ll see temperatures take a plunge towards the freezing mark with chilly winds out of the northeast. We’re already seeing temperatures below freezing across the Permian Basin as of 7:30 PM. This cool down will coincide with an upper level disturbance off to our west, and a surface low forming to our north. This will supply a very shallow layer of moisture, but will likely be enough to see some light drizzle. The big question mark now is how cold things will get at the surface. There is still considerable model disagreement as the layer of cold air will be very shallow, with warmer air on top. Despite the differences between the models, things have been fairly consistent over the past 24 hours in terms of timing and placement. So here’s what we know:

  • Precipitation will be light and will begin sometime between 5-7 tomorrow morning.
  • It will be cold enough in the northern Permian Basin and in SE New Mexico for freezing drizzle, sleet, and maybe some snowflakes to be the dominant precipitation type. Road conditions could become a big concern, especially in Lea and Gaines Counties.
  • Even light accumulations can cause big problems out on the roads, especially on overpasses.

Working your way into southern Culberson County and south of I-20 in the Permian Basin, things are a little less obvious. Will it get cold enough to freeze, or will it just be a cold rain? I don’t think there will be a fine line between frozen and non-frozen precipitation, so if you live around I-20 in Reeves County, and even the southern Permian Basin, make sure to keep checking in on the forecast for the latest updates.

Luckily, things warm up in the afternoon for most of us, though icy conditions could linger in New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin. We could see things refreeze Wednesday morning as more of us fall below freezing, but we start to warm up Wednesday afternoon back to the 50s, and near 70 on Friday.

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