PERMIAN BASIN, TX (KWES) -Scattered storms may initiate around 4-5pm and in the Trans Pecos and move into the Permian Basin by 7-8pm. They will be scattered in nature during the afternoon, but some storms could be strong to severe. Heading into tonight and overnight, storms become more widespread as the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio make their way into the area.
With the strongest storms, impacts include wind gusts up to 60 mph, quarter sized hail, and an isolated tornado is not out of the question. The tornado threat is low, but it is there. Flooding will also be a threat in the northern Permian Basin, especially in areas where the ground is already saturated by flooding last Monday night.
There is still some uncertainty in this forecast. The atmosphere will need to destabilize in order for storms to form. Destabilization occurs if we get some breaks in the cloud cover, allowing the sun to heat the surface. If we see overcast skies all afternoon, the threat of severe storms will be much lower.
Models indicate all storm activity to be to the north and east of the area by Saturday afternoon.